The invasion of Europe by jihadist illegal immigrants, the rise of right-wing forces in Europe, and the strategies of the United States and China to interfere in every sphere and create new theatres of war are all bringing the world under a sword of Damocles. The United States, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Qatar, Taiwan, China, Iran, Turkey, the Taliban, Pakistan, the Koreas, and the entire West Asian region—all of them are currently simmering in a cauldron of anxiety. Military warfare, biological warfare, cyber warfare, psychological warfare, propaganda warfare, information warfare, and technological warfare are all flourishing simultaneously. There are also suspicions that, on a limited scale, chemical weapons may be being used in some places and that attempts to create natural disasters may also be taking place here and there. There is apprehension that all this could gradually lead to a global-scale war.
Wherever a devastating war takes place, its consequences will affect almost every country. Current wars are increasingly moving toward indirectly destabilising people’s lives. Wherever war breaks out, disruption of oil supplies, obstruction of the movement of goods, and shutdowns of major waterways are likely to be the first and foremost targets. After that, the destruction of electricity grids, financial and digital systems, food-production and distribution systems, and reservoirs can be expected. The United States, which aims to become the sole major oil-supplying country, is systematically attempting to undermine other oil-producing regions such as Russia and West Asia. It has also turned its hostile attention toward India’s oil-refining industry.
If the two major wars currently underway—the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-Israel war against Iran—continue for some time, complete imbalance in the global system could increase in many ways. Countries that have complete self-sufficiency in food production, self-sufficiency in water and electricity availability, multiple alternative sources of energy, complete self-sufficiency in medicines and healthcare, self-sufficiency in digital internet and security technologies, and adequate access to and conservation of resources will be able to withstand the effects of prolonged war to some extent. However, the number of countries possessing all these forms of self-sufficiency is negligible. Although the United States is in a favourable position in several of these areas, its domestic production of many commodities, including medicines, is not particularly strong. Trump’s economic wars and military conflicts are unlikely to stop for the time being.
If dependence on petroleum products declines to the point where petroleum is no longer essential in everyday life, the entire global picture would change. It is being alleged that Muslim migrants are being pushed into European countries, the United States, and other prosperous Asian countries with the objective of establishing new bases before the oil reserves run dry. Some experts speculate that there are plans to move their populations into prosperous countries, initiate religious conflicts there, and eventually take the situation to the point of demanding separate countries. Whatever the truth of these claims, Europe is currently a major stronghold of jihadists at a time when the world is undergoing enormous technological, economic, and political changes. In many European countries, right-wing political parties are winning elections while condemning the “jihadist-supporting” stance of left-wing politics. Left-wing forces are determined to prevent the rise of the right wing by any means. This means that Europe is likely to face internal instability and conflicts for many more years.
What is the global strategic and diplomatic environment at this moment?
The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) has now been plunged into uncertainty, stagnation, and instability. It is the only major global project with the potential to counter China’s proposed Belt and Road Initiative. Several European countries have already announced their intention to withdraw from China’s project.
There are suspicions that some powerful forces may have devised an elaborate strategy to cripple the India-West Asia-Europe trade corridor at its inception; to undermine the operations of the strategically important ports of Haifa in Israel and Chabahar in Iran, which are linked to Indian business interests; and to obstruct the “Abraham Accords” that were fostering rapprochement between Israel and Arab countries. It is being alleged that some forces are planning to seize new countries rich in food and water resources. The fact that the United States has turned its attention toward Canada and Greenland is noteworthy.
If the intensity of wars increases, electricity grids, water supplies, food supplies, mobile communications, and other essential services could face disruptions—even in countries that are not directly involved in the conflicts.
Meanwhile, using the “Palestinian issue” as a basis, disputes, conflicts, and divisions are increasing at the global level. Iran, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, and other Muslim-majority countries have stood in support of Hamas. Although Saudi Arabia opposes Hamas, it has opposed Israel’s actions because the issue concerns Palestine. Left-wing governments have taken a firm position in favour of establishing Palestinian interests. Russia and China are opposed to the United States and are among the countries supportive of Iran. China in particular is suspected of supporting Iran and Hamas and of plotting against Israel.
China has two objectives. One is to loosen America’s grip over the Gulf states and establish its own influence there. The other is to surpass every other country in the world in the alternative-energy sector. Before that, America’s objective is to destabilise the global oil market and establish a monopoly over oil supplies. There is concern among many that China may be planning to keep Western powers tied down in multiple theatres of war while using the opportunity to attack and capture Taiwan.
What is actually happening remains a mystery. The nature of global commerce and the maps of many countries could undergo major changes in various ways over the next ten years.
The United States, burdened with $40 trillion in debt, has entered an undeclared economic recession. Its adverse effects are being felt by many countries. As the U.S. dollar faces challenges, American pressure and coercion are increasing. As usual, aggressive methods are being employed to preserve the dollar’s dominance. The United States knows that it will be difficult to maintain dependence on the dollar through coercion alone. If necessity becomes acute, it appears to be developing a strategy to abandon the dollar itself and create a new system based on cryptocurrencies.
Because of serial wars and political confusion, Europe’s economy is rapidly sliding downhill. Eastern countries such as Japan and South Korea are not experiencing significant economic progress. China is struggling under political and economic challenges. There is little need to describe the plight of African countries.
Pakistan, which once declared, “Even if we have to eat grass, we will bring India to its knees,” has now reached a situation where it is itself forced to eat grass. Excessive corruption among its political and military leadership, along with its obsession with war and terrorism, has pushed the country into deep distress. People in Balochistan have risen up against Pakistan and China. The Taliban has turned against the Pakistanis. China appears to be maintaining a cautious balance with both Pakistan and the Taliban. China’s own interests are paramount. If Xi Jinping believes that he can gain more territory under Taliban rule than through Pakistan’s military establishment, he will certainly lean in that direction.
If the situation continues in this manner, Pakistan’s present map could change by 2030—or even earlier. The country could split into three or four parts.
For now, India is moving forward while dreaming of the future and achieving strong economic progress. India’s principle of self-reliance, or Atmanirbhar Bharat, has begun to work. However, the challenges are enormous. Achieving significant self-reliance in every sphere is difficult.
There have been some positive developments for India. There is political stability. There is economic growth. The policy of strategic autonomy is working. Despite all these global crises, India is the only major country in the world currently achieving economic growth of around 7–8 percent. The foundation of India’s economy remains strong. Most economists are hopeful that the adverse effects of the global economic crisis will not affect India to a great extent. At present, among the world’s capital markets, India’s market is the one attracting the greatest global attention.
If all these favourable conditions continue, India’s economic and military position could improve considerably by 2030. However, whether countries and forces that cannot tolerate India’s continued progress will simply remain quiet without creating new challenges and obstacles is a matter of concern. Constant vigilance is essential regarding the challenges lying in the country’s path.
Starting any war is easy, but ending it in a “pre-planned” manner is difficult. War is not a movie script that can unfold exactly as planned. It is impossible to predict in advance all the twists and turns that a battlefield may take, what new theatres of war may emerge, what other powers may enter the arena, and what the direct and indirect, short-term and long-term consequences of the conflict may be. As circumstances change, India will have to respond while constantly weighing its national interests.
One thing is extremely clear: this is an era in which those hungry for war are flourishing. Wars are being deliberately created. No one knows how long any particular war will last or where new theatres of conflict may emerge. People will have to be mentally prepared for the unrest and economic setbacks that prolonged wars can bring.
If the intensity of wars increases, electricity grids, water supplies, food supplies, mobile communications, and other essential services could face disruptions—even in countries that are not directly involved in the conflicts.